North Dakota Political Poll ---------------

North Dakota United Transportation Union Commissions Statewide Poll Obama Leads McCain in North Dakota

(Bismarck-ND)-North Dakota United Transportation Union (UTU) commissioned DFM Research to conduct a statewide survey of 400 North Dakotans in a stratified random survey on the race for president in North Dakota. Results show Obama leading McCain by three percentage points (43% to 40%). The margin of error for the poll is + five percentage points.

John Risch of UTU said, “Obama’s lead is not surprising considering the candidates’ positions on issues. Sen. McCain has one of the poorest labor voting records in congress. He voted against the farm bill and consistently votes against funding AMTRAK. In contrast, Sen. Obama has an excellent labor voting record; he voted for the farm bill and is a big supporter AMTRAK. As North Dakotan’s become more aware of the candidates’ positions, Obama’s lead should grow and there may be a lot of pundits surprised come election day.”

The survey also has results on the races for U.S. Congress, Governor and State Treasurer. John Risch can be contacted at 701-223-0061 and Dean Mitchell of DFM Research can be contacted at 651-330-9510.

Survey Methodology

Interviews: 400 Respondents by Telephone * Conducted by Performance Centers Inc of Fargo, ND

Margin of Error: + 5 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence level

Interview Dates: August 23-27

Sample: Stratified Random Sample. Random digit numbers provided by Survey Sample International (SSI) of Fairfield, CT. SSI provided DFM Research with 6,000 residential random phone numbers from a pool of listed and unlisted numbers comprising 98.68% of total exchanges in the boundary area, which then were stratified into five distinct North Dakota geographical regions. Each number had a non-zero chance of being selected.

Survey Sponsor: North Dakota United Transportation Union and DFM Research



Intro: Standard opening from Performance Centers Inc. The initial screen was to ask for the person with the most recent birthday who was over the age of eighteen.

Q1: In the upcoming election this November, how likely would you say you are to vote? (READ LIST)

Very likely …………..…………..… 89%
Fairly likely ……………………… 11
Somewhat likely ……………..……. (TERMINATE CALL)
Not that likely……………………… (TERMINATE CALL)
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… (TERMINATE CALL)
(VOL) Refused ………………….… (TERMINATE CALL)

Q2: Generally speaking, do you think things in the nation are moving in the right direction or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?

Right Direction ……………………. 22%
Wrong Track ……………………... 64
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 14

Q3: And generally speaking, do you think things in North Dakota are moving in the right direction or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?

Right Direction ……………………. 66%
Wrong Track ……………………... 22
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 12

I’m now going to read you some names of some public figures and organizations, for each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, and if you never heard of them before, just let me know. (ROTATE NAMES).

Favorable Unfavorable Neutral/Unsure Never Heard Of

Q4: Barack Obama 53% 34 12 1
Q4a: John McCain 45 40 14 1
Q4d: Kelly Schmidt 9 8 16 68
Q4f: John Hoeven 68 13 17 3

Q5: Turning to the upcoming election. If the election for President was held today, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama the Democrat, John McCain the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)

Barack Obama …………………..... 43%
John McCain …..…………….......... 40
(VOL) Other candidate ……….…... 5
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 12





Q6: In the race for U.S. Congress, if the election was held today, for whom would you vote? Earl Pomeroy the Democrat or Duane Sand the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)

Earl Pomeroy …………....……..…. 53%
Duane Sand …....…….…….........… 27
(VOL) Other candidate ……...……. 2
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 18

Q7: In the race for North Dakota Governor, if the election was held today, for whom would you vote? Tim Mathern the Democrat or John Hoeven the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)

Tim Mathern ……………....…..…. 19%
John Hoeven …....…….…….......… 63
(VOL) Other candidate ……...……. 3
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 15

Q9: In the race for North Dakota State Treasurer, if the election was held today, for whom would you vote, Mitch Vance the Democrat or Kelly Schmidt the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)

Mitch Vance ………………………….... 17%
Kelly Schmidt …..………………........… 22
(VOL) Other candidate ……...…...……. 2
(VOL) Unsure …………...…...………… 59


** (VOL) indicates a volunteered response made by the survey respondent.

The Particulars

The poll results presented in this report are based on a stratified random sample of 400 North Dakotan voters that were screened to establish their likelihood of voting in 2008 election. The sample was stratified by region to ensure a representative sample of the North Dakota electorate. The stratified sample was composed of five distinct regions, composed of:

23% - Eastern Urban Areas (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)
18% - Western Urban Areas (Bismarck, Mandan, Minot)
22% - Eastern North Dakota
23% - Central North Dakota
14% - Western North Dakota

The percentages allocated for each regions was based on voter turnout in the 53 counties from the 2004 general election coupled with the most recent state population estimates provided by the Census Bureau.

After the numbers were stratified into the appropriate region, telephone numbers were then selected by random using a skip pattern to guarantee that the interviews were distributed throughout the region. Each number in the stratified sample had the same non-zero chance of being selected for an interview.

Telephone interviews were conducted by trained staff of Performance Center Inc (PCI), of Fargo, North Dakota using a computer assisted telephone interview (CATI) system. Each telephone number randomly selected by the skip pattern was called four times during all times of the day to minimize non-response error. And to ensure everyone in the household would have an equal chance of being selected; PCI callers would ask to interview the resident over the age-of-18 who had the most recent birthday.

At the end of each day, Performance Centers Inc would provide DFM Research a list of all completed interviews in an excel format. Data was then analyzed using an excel program, and final results were weighted based on gender, education and age to conform with the expected 2008 North Dakota voting population based on U.S. Census Bureau demographic data and the March 2006 Current Population Reports on the characteristics of 2004 voters. Below are the final demographic percentage used to weight the survey responses.

Gender Age Education

Male 48% 18-34 25% HS or < 36%
Female 52% 35-44 21% Some College 37%
45-54 19% BA Degree 20%
55+ 35% Grad Degree 7%
The final results presented are subject to sampling error, which is the difference between results obtained from the survey and those if everyone in the target population – North Dakota likely voters – were interviewed. The sampling error – margin of error – for this poll is + 5 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence level; meaning that in 19 out of 20 times, the results presented would be within the confidence interval. If final results of a question resulted in a tabulated answer of 50 percent, the confidence interval would between 45 to 55 percent. It should be noted that the margin of error decreases as the final results move closer to zero and 100 percent. For example, if the final results in this poll resulted in a tally of 20 percent, the margin of error would be + 4 percentage points.

Final analysis of the data, as well as project management, was completed by Dean Mitchell of DFM Research in Saint Paul. In addition to his 16-years of political experience, Dean has completed course work in survey techniques and statistics while pursuing his Master in Public Policy (MPP) degree from the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute. Dean will graduate in the Fall of 2008.